U r b a n T r e k k e r

NAR Convention San Fransisco

I am attending a four-day conference/expo for the National Association of Realtors in San Fransisco. This is NAR annual gathering event to learn about the hottest trends in real estate. The speakers line up include, Malcolm Gladwell (author of Blink), the famous "Dr. Phil", Ken Blanchard (author of One Minute Manager), and Guy Kawasaki (author of Rules for Revolutionaries).

I will be back for blogging Wednesday, November 2.  And will share with you what I hear from the experts..

Real Estate Links

Here is selected news from around the Net:

15 Hot Cities for Creative Types [CoolTown Studios]
2000-foot-tall Pigeon Roost Proposed for Chicago's Lakefront [Architecture Chicago Plus]
Existing Home Sales See Hurricane Related Surge [Matrix]
D.C. Seizes 16 Owners' Property for Stadium [Washington Post]
Existing Home Sales Stay Strong [Washington Post]
Three Cents Worth: Mortgage Rates, Sales Price, Toothpaste [Curbed]
Economic Future Bright through 2007 [Inman News]

Real Estate Links

Here is selected news from around the Internet:

Condo Tower Proposed with WholeFoods [BizJournal]
Helping Broker to Bids for His Home [Washington Post]
Landlord Finds Difficulty in Managing Rental [Real Estate Journal]
Trouble in Paradise [The Seattle Times]
Casablanca, a Pragmatic's Fresh Take [International Herald Tribune]
For Escape from Hi-Rise [The Christian Science Monitor]
An Emerald Necklace May Brace Atlanta [LA Times]
Housing Booming Lacks of Volatility [Matrix]
Curbed Price Chopper [Curbed]

This Week in Real Estate

Lou Barnes [Inman news] has an interesting thought on mortgage rates.

It's not enough to move low-fee mortgage rates below 6 percent, but the 10-year T-note flinched at 4.5 percent all of last week, and on Friday morning retraced to 4.38 percent.

No data showing economic weakness caused the rate decline: the newest information says the national economy came through Hurricanes Katrina and Rita unimpaired.

Two things have helped long-term rates to find a top: the painful understanding that if the Federal Reserve is not yet tight enough to hurt, it soon will be; and second, unstable weakness in the stock market.

In the perverse world of bonds, inflation-scare stories help. It goes this way: if inflation is really worse than we think -- under-measured, misunderstood -- then the Fed will have to play catch-up, tightening longer-higher-faster. If the Fed is behind, then catch-up raises the chance of a recession to probable, and in a recession those who own bonds make a ton of money.

For the time being, I wouldn't pay much attention to the hobgoblin in ketchup on the front porch. People who should know better quarrel all the time with inflation-measurement methodology; this time the quibble is with the housing fraction of the core rate, measured near zero in a time of double-digit home-price increases. Housing inflation is measured by rental equivalence, and as rents everywhere are flat, housing cost is not inflating. This approach is correct, as changes in the capital cost of homes have little to do with consumption prices and the value of currency.

Authentic concern for inflation is flashing amber, not red. We are in an energy-cost-pushed moment, and energy costs are likely to reverse in well-established cyclical pattern. So long as the energy-cost pressure does not move into consumer prices in general, or into wages, then the Fed is on track.

Real Estate Links

It's Monday, folks...lots of things happening over the weekend. Here are selected real estate related news from around the Internet:

Population Shifts Can Occur Daily [Washington Post]
Developers Ask Homeowners to Share Golf Course, Pools [Real Estate Journal]
Hand-Washables Go to The Spa [Real Estate Journal]
Yuppie Starter Home Index [Matrix]
America's Last True Bargains [NYT]
The Benefits of the Boom [NYT]
Ten Common Sense Rules for TOD [Planetizen]
The Once and Future Ranch House [LA Times]
Mixed-use Development Attracts Crowds Despite High Prices [Planetizen]
$3 Gas Has Mass Transit Hoping [MSN Money]
In God's Country [FreeTimes]
Between Houses? Bridge Loans May Help [Washington Times]
Big Steps in Housing, Commercial Growth [Washington Times]
Philadelphia Downtown Boom [CoolTown Studios]
Bubble Watch: Meta Bubble Edition [Curbed]

Photo: From around Capitol Hill

DC Market Overvalued by 18.2%

You've probably heard about PMI insurance. This company insures home loans with low down payments and it is the largest insurers of home mortgages. PMI Group of Walnut Creek, Calif, just released their Valuation Index on Tuesday and according to their index Washington DC market is 18.2 percent overvalued. [Washington Post]

Why do PMI care about overvalued home market? Because...

PMI stands to pay out millions of dollars in claims if property values decline in overheated markets and insured mortgages default. The losses would be even steeper in areas where homes were overvalued when the mortgage was insured.

Rewards & Dangers of Personal Collections

Purchasing a house sometimes become too personal of experience, especially when you're house hunting and found a place you fell in love with. When buyers fall-in-love with the property, it's not good because then buyers tend to justify their purchase. Okay, not all the time.. but it happens very often. Then if they didn't get the house - it's a heartbroken experience!

Fortunately, we're in buyers market now. Buyers have more leverage for their purchasing power. This time sellers have to lured buyers to purchase their properties. That means for sellers, there is potential rewards and dangers of displaying personal collections. [Washington Post]

But one photo truly made Short, a Navy lieutenant, feel at home in that condo in the Virginia suburb of Fairlington: a smiling person posing in front of an Air Force helicopter.

Short had just returned home from serving seven months in Iraq, and considers herself a Republican. She identified with the homeowner's beliefs, as reflected in the collection of photos, made an offer, and is scheduled to close on the condo on Nov. 1.

Friday Real Estate Links

Woooohooo... it's Friday! Here are selected news on real estate from around the Net:

Donald Trump to Receive $1.5M for Speech [Matrix]
How Women Can Rehab their Contractor Relationships [Real Estate Jourmal]
The Riskiest Housing Market, A Drop in Home Prices Forecasts [Real Estate Journal]
What's Next in Furniture [Real Estate Jourmal]
Navigating City Life with No Car [Chicago Sun Times]
Broken System in Green Building Certification [Wall Street Jourmal]
Making the Connection on Street Connectivity [Planetizen]
$20 Million Townhouses Dropping Like Flies [Curbed]

Enjoy your Friday :).

Economic Indicators Pointed to Slow Down

More negative news for the housing market that pointed to slow down in housing market. The U.S. leading index, a key barometer of economic conditions, decreased by 0.7 percent in September. [Inman News]

In September, the largest negative contributors to the leading index were the index of consumer expectations and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The growth rate of the leading index has been slowing down steadily from a peak growth of about 10 percent at the end of 2003, and it is now fluctuating in the 0.5 to 1.5 percent annual rate range in recent months.

NVR, Inc., Homebuilder, reported that orders in the Washington DC region drop by 19% from the third quarter of this year. This region is the only area where NVR said their housing orders drop, they're doing well in other parts of the country. [Washington Post]

Real Estate Tax Deductions Back On the Table

Real estate tax deductions is back on Congress list of items to slash. In my opionion, this is the wrong thing to do. Because there are other items that they could cut. As you know, Congress is looking hard at some ways to cut budget/spending. Middle class Americans will be the one to get hard hit -- of not being able to use mortage interest for deductions anymore. States could also lose their source of revenues.

It will be a long time before it becomes law. But, it is worth watching. Hopefully, it gets stalled.. even before getting support from members of Congress.

Related links:
Tax Code Overhaul [Mercury News]
Housing Price Might Get Doused by US Tax Code Revision [Bloomberg]
The Economy: Housing Boom Moment of Truth [Philadelphia Inquirer]