U r b a n T r e k k e r

She Will be Missed....

This post is dedicated for my mother....

My best friend, Trish (L) and my mother (R)

[I will be traveling half way around the world to Jakarta, Indonesia, to be with the rest of my family today].

My mother, June Kuntjoro-Jakti, died of a heart attack this afternoon in Jakarta, Indonesia. She left this world quietly with no warnings or signs. GONE just like that.... She was supposed to come and visit me in Washington in about two weeks. I was really looking forward to seeing here here.. And now she's gone -- f o r e v e r !!   

I call my mom every few days. I remember the last time we spoke, she asked me how the weather is here. I said "it's warm." She was happy to hear that. And before I hang up the phone I said "I love you, mom.." and she said "I love you, too." I was glad that I said that. Because, it turns out -- that was the last time I spoke to her!

I think..separation is a painful experience to go through. Death is no exception. To heal my pain, I can only remember the good times we had together. The last time she was here, we had a great time. I cherished every moment I'm with her. We had so much fun. We laughed. Argued.. etc. etc. But, the best part is -- we enjoy each other company. 

Speaking about threesome...

My mom, me, and Congressman Bobby Scott (VA-3) at his annual picnic (Sept '06)

Before Trish, my best friend, took the picture of the three of us. My mom says, "No, No and No!" She didn't want her to take our picture. She is one of the people who believed that it's "taboo" to have threesome in a picture. And I, of course.. don't believe it. She says, it's bad luck... Now, I g-e-t it. But, it's already too late..

Mom.. you are my mother, my best friend, and my rock!!

Thank you for everything that you gave me, show me, and taught me. I love you...

Indoor Air Quality In Your Home

It's spring time now...

I didn't really pay too much attention on the quality of air specifically inside the home that we live in.. until I read more (part of the course I'm taking) about the importance of IAQ, short for indoor air quality. According to EPA, "indoor air is typically five times more contaminated than outdoor air." In some cases, indoor air can be 100 times more contaminated!

Maintaining a good level of exchange rate of air -- the rate at which outdoor air replaces indoor air is very important. Via EPA.

If too little outdoor air enters a home,   pollutants can accumulate to levels that can pose health and comfort problems.   Unless they are built with special mechanical means of ventilation, homes that   are designed and constructed to minimize the amount of outdoor air that can   "leak" into and out of the home may have higher pollutant levels   than other homes. However, because some weather conditions can drastically   reduce the amount of outdoor air that enters a home, pollutants can build up   even in homes that are normally considered "leaky".

Pollutant sources include combustion sources like oil, gas, kerosene, coal, wood, and tobacco products; deteriorating building materials and furnishings, asbestos-containing insulation, wet or damp carpet, furniture made of certain pressed wood products; household cleaning products and maintenance, personal care, central heating and cooling systems as well as outdoor sources like radon, pesticides, and outdoor air pollution.

The three basic strategies to improve air quality in your home:

1. Source control -- is the most effective way to improve the indoor quality.
2. Improved ventilation -- increase amount of outdoor air to your home.
3. Air cleaners -- it depends how effective the cleaner collects pollutants from indoor air. Central air vacuums, which installed in some of the new homes is good for your whole house cleaning.

So, know how your indoor air gets polluted. If you're thinking to get an air cleaner, and don't have the resources, the best thing you can do is to open your window -- and let the fresh aire in....

Links:
* Indoor Air Quality [EPA]
* Central Vacuum Systems [AHAM]
* Indoor Air Facts No. 8: Use and Care of Home Humidifiers [EPA]
* Indoor Air Quality Association Consumer Information 

Real Estate News Roundup

* You Think You've Got Problems Now? Home Headaches You Easily Avoid [NAHB]
"It's inevitable. You have a house. You love your house. One day, some day, something eventually is going to happen. Something breaks. Something needs repainting or repairing. It's just part of owning a house. Luckily there are problems you don't have to experience. Below are common problems in your home you can easily avoid. And besides, don't we all have enough problems as it is?"

* A Second Home, For the Love of Land [NYT]
"Richard Radcliffe is putting his second home to work. Three years ago, Mr. Radcliffe, 48, who lives in San Francisco, bought a six-acre vineyard in Occidental, Calif., in Sonoma County. He now sells his annual harvest of pinot noir grapes (last year he generated 17 tons) to two local Sonoma County winemakers who use them for wines that retail for $45 to $55 a bottle."

* MBA Urges Regulatory Restraint as Deliquency and Foreclosures Rise [MND]
"The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) quarterly delinquency report   is jammed full of information reported from dozens of different perspectives   - all loans, prime, subprime, government guaranteed and not, national, regional,   and by state, and by several different categories of delinquency. The information   is important (witness the stock   market reaction on Tuesday) and interesting but can be tough to read and   understand."

* The Growing Interest in Universal Design [Planetizen]
"Leaders of the Universal Design movement call for a built environment that works for all members of society -- young, old, able-bodied or disabled -- an increasingly important issue as the population ages."

* From Bunkers to Barracks to Mixed-Use Housing [Planetizen]
"The Canada Lands Company refurbishes surplus military bases into New Urbanist neighborhoods."

* Controversial Reston Retooling for Vote Monday [DC Examiner]
" A controversial policy change that could allow thousands of new homes to sprout in Reston is set to come before the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors on Monday."

* Kitchen Design Don'ts [HGTV]
" He’s designed a kitchen around intricate pink toile wallpaper, created a modern kitchen for a converted pre-Civil War stone barn and even worked on a kitchen for a woman who didn’t cook but wanted a beautiful kitchen — without appliances!"

* Arlington Approves Plan for Housing [Washington Post]
"The Arlington County Board unanimously endorsed a sweeping plan last night to allow redevelopment of part of the Buckingham Village area that will lead to the construction and preservation of about 300 affordable housing units."

* Revisiting IRC 121 [Washington Post]
"DEAR BOB: You often mention that a married couple filing a joint income tax return can claim up to $500,000 in tax-free profit from the sale of their principal residence, thanks to Internal Revenue Code 121."

* Houses Cheaper than Cars in Detroit [Outside the Beltway]
"You can  buy a house in Detroit for $4000!  It’ll be a fixer-upper, though."

* Housing Starts Up, but Permits Still Falling [Hot Property]
"Starts on construction of single-family homes rose 9% in February, the government said today."

* Relocating: A Tough Call in Today's Market [The Ground Floor]
"For many U.S. workers, now is not the time to pick up and move. A recent article in USA Today reported results from a couple of relocation surveys that illustrate the impact that the housing slump is making on job-related moves."

* Brownstoner:It?s Me! [NYO]
"Jonathan Butler, a 37-year-old Upper East Side native and Princeton graduate, has been blogging about Brooklyn real estate under the moniker Brownstoner for more than two years. He has, until now, kept his identity a secret, except to a tiny handful, including his wife Kira."

* Golden Zip Codes [Open House]
"Think a Georgetown address is more expensive than one in Howard County?  Think again."

* Don't Celebrate Quite Yet: Housing Still Hasn't Bottomed [Seeking Alpha]
"Housing starts for February came in at a better-than-expected 1.525 million. Several commentators jumped on this as evidence that the housing market has bottomed and that the economy is strong. They shouldn't celebrate."

* Subprime Mortgage Woes Keep Home Builders Glum in March [USA Today]
"Deepening problems in the subprime mortgage sector, which makes the riskiest home loans, chipped away at U.S. home builder confidence in March, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday."

Rethink Tysons: A TOD Public Workshop

Last night, I attended a community workshops planned for, as part of the planning and urban design for the future of Tysons Corner. The purpose of these workshops is to, "assist the Tysons Land Use Task Force and the consultant team in defining, examining, and contrasting Alternative for Growth in Tysons." The alternatives for growth is none other than what is it that we want to achieve with urbanization of Tysons. Two of the key assumptions are: 1) Tysons will grow, 2) metro is coming.

Fairfax county has already have the base map [below]. The base map shows the current Transit Oriented Development surrounding the four proposed metro station, is where we start before mixing it up to create something that represents housing, commercial and retail density growth. Think of it as -- BEFORE vs. AFTER.

BEFORE

As you can see from the map, there are four circles. Those circles are where the proposed stations stop. And redevelopment will be centered around the stations, with some have more density than other stations. What they're doing now -- is rethinking Tysons by getting input from the public.

To create a true T-O-D environment, we should maximize the use of transit. However, because Tysons is the largest employment center in Northern Virginia, employees coming from different directions. At the present time, there are more commuters than residents living at Tysons. That -- will change in the future with population projected to double from 116,000 to 212,000 people.

By offering "other attractive" amenities, like green space, retails, etc., Tysons wanted to create a livable and vibrant environment that continues after working hours.. much like Clarendon, or Ballston in Arlington. Arlington, is "the best practice" when it comes to TOD for this area.

With that in mind, the "Alternatives for Growth" for Tysons, offer three possibilities:

1. Housing -- emphasizes on residential growth
    
2. Employment -- making sure that we're keeping Tysons as the economic engine of Northern Virginia
    
3. Pushing the envelope -- bring more jobs and housing

For example, in the base case scenario, an employment focus alternative will create 31,000 dwelling units - which eventually double from the base case at 16,000 dwelling units. (The base case is what is allowed under the Comprehensive Plan with modifications). Pushing the envelope is truly pushing the limit without considering other socio and economic impact for the neighborhoods.

Towards the end of the meeting, we had the chance to listen each group presenting their best case scenario, whether it is housing focus, employment focus or pushing it. And this is what the solutions our group came up... (blue=non retail commercial, yellow=residential, white=retail, black=civic uses).

AFTER

The public will have the opportunity to hear an overview of all six workshops on Thursday night, March 22, at Capital One building, 1630 Capital One Drive in McLean. By the way, Capital One is one of the Fortune 500 companies headquartered in McLean.

Links:

* Tysons Land Use Task Force Meeting Summary Jan.22.2007 [pdf]
* Taming Tysons Corner [pdf]
* Vote for Tysons Corner Proposal May Upset Work on Master Plan [Washington Post]

DC Has 14% Subprime Loans

From over the weekend...

According to Nightly Business Report, in Anacostia DC, nearly one of every seven loans is subprime loan. You can watch the video clip under tonight's (Friday) program. Maybe this shouldn't come as a surprise, given the fact that the low to moderate income and minorities borrowers are not on lenders' "A" category list. Not only that these folks probably might have also been targeted for predatory lending. It's double whammy for them!

What is a subprime loan? Via Washington Post.

A subprime loan is generally made to persons who cannot qualify for a traditional mortgage. According to a recent study issued by the Federal Reserve Board, "The subprime category of residential mortgages includes loans made to borrowers that displayed one or more of the following characteristics at the time of loan origination: weakened credit histories stemming from payment delinquencies, charge-offs, judgments or bankruptcies; reduced repayment capacity as measured by credit scores or debt-to-income ratios, and incomplete credit histories."

If more subprime borrowers are forced to go foreclosure routes -- it's going to affect D.C. government tax base. Because every one of the borrowers contributes to DC's tax coffer.

The trouble does not only hit the District, but also spills over across the river to Fairfax County. According to Urban Land Institute, via Examiner, "Fairfax county had the second-highest number of subprime mortgages in 2004."

Fairfax? Last I read, Fairfax has a median income of $94,610 (second only to Loudoun) -- now.. this-is-shocking! Via Examiner.

Urban Institute Senior Research Associate Peter Tatian said in more affluent communities like Fairfax, homeowners overextend themselves by using subprime mortgages to borrow against the value of their house for renovations, or to upgrade to bigger homes.

“Many folks are relying on subprime loan refinancing,” he said. “It wasn’t a good option to begin with, but it was some way to raise money.”

Prince Georges county, is another county that might have problems with subprime loans. As they say, you ain't see nothing yet. The trouble with the loans, may also affects the financial services industry. Via The Ground Floor.

As the saga unfolds, its impact grows. Take a look at today's articles in the financial press where they discuss the number of money market mutual funds which had invested in securitizations containing sub-prime loans as a way of juicing up their meager yields.

The subprime loans saga won't go away anytime soon, because there's even a website dedicated to tracking the number of lenders that have gone kaput! (Hat tip to The Ground Floor)

To close, here's what Stephen Colbert has to say about subprime mortgages....

6 Degrees of Separation

Builders and homeowners have different attitudes when it comes to selling homes.

1) Builders are in the business of building home.

>> Homeowners are not in the business. Homes are their place to live.

2) Builders don't have emotional attachments to their homes -- because they're just products.

>> Homeowners on the other hand, it's their place er, home. In some cases, it's a place where their kids grow up. That's why they do have "emotional attachments" to their homes. MY home always look better than the other persons' home.

3) Builders don't make money renting or sitting on a empty houses or vacant land. They make money when they sell homes or move their inventory.

>> Homeowners on the other hand, don't have the urgency to sell, unless they're going through life changes, i.e. divorce, downsize, move up, transfer/ relo, baby/ies on the way, etc.

4) Builders adjusted their prices aggressively to market changes. Most of the big builders are public companies, and responsible to their shareholders. Shareholders have concern about the market and wanted to know what step of actions builders do to have the company back on track. That's why you see builders aggressively offer incentives. Most builders stocks were hit hard because of market changes or now in the case of subprime loans saga.

Time to buy builders stocks?

>> Homeowners not responsible to anyone, except their lenders make sure that they're not behind on mortgages-- if they're still paying their loans.

5) Reputation is key for builders. There are crappy builders out there. For the most part, they're fine. Their focus is building long-term relationships with their clients. Once they tarred the reputation... it's damaging to the business.

>> Homeowners don't have that baggage. They can sell and move on...

6)  Builders take huge write-offs on losses. And builders have the pow-wah to negotiate with their vendors. They're in wholesale business.

>> For the most part homeowners fortunately.. don't have to deal with huge losses. With the exception, those owners who bought property at the peak of the market and have to sell. Then they would have come to the table (at settlement that is) with cash. Every remodeling they do to the house even though, it helps reduce their cost basis when they sell it -- still can't compete with builders ability to negotiate with their vendors.

>> TIP: In this market -- when it comes to negotiating prices, you probably have more leeway with builders.

Real Estate News Roundup

* Using the Web to Find Information Your Realtor Won't Tell You [Real Estate Journal]
"Steve Roddel was walking through a house in Fort Wayne, Ind., when he   wondered aloud if there were any sex offenders living in the neighborhood."

* Vital Signs: Can Nerves Be Calmed about Housing? [Business Week]
"The financial markets are twitching over every new piece of information about the housing market and the unfolding demise of the subprime mortgage market."

* Give Staircase Style with New Balusters [Remodeling Online]
"In multilevel homes, staircases can make grand statements by front doors or be more subtle and hidden near kitchens. They can be straight, can be curved or can zig-zag from the first to the second floors."

* To Pick a Contractor, Play Detective [Washington Post]
"Yesterday I wrote about a libel lawsuit that a local contractor has filed against two of his customers, saying that they defamed him by posting negative comments on Angie's List ( http://www.angieslist.com), a Web site of user-generated reviews of service providers."

* Subprime Mortgage Troubles Could Still Spread Pain But Probably Not Recession [USA Today]
" The subprime mortgage meltdown, while dramatic, isn't likely to push the U.S. economy into recession. Still, bankruptcies at dozens of lenders and rising default rates among borrowers could reduce growth, hurt home prices, crimp consumer spending and affect the financial fortunes of millions, from first-time home buyers to timber workers, truckers and lenders."

* Despite Real Estate Dive, New F.C. Budget Plan Has Only 1c Tax Hike [FCNP]
"The City of Falls Church is a tiny jurisdiction disproportionately dependent for operating revenues on residential real estate taxes. With the recent years’ rapid growth in residential real estate values tanking in 2006, rising less than half a percent, it came as a surprise to the City Council Monday night when City Manager Wyatt Shields proposed a new budget that would fully fund the schools and require only a one cent increase in the real estate tax rate."

* University of Maryland Selects Developer for Commercial Project [Washington BizJournal]
"A partnership of Rockville-based Foulger-Pratt and Argo Investment has been tapped to develop a mixed-use project on a 38-acre parcel at the University of Maryland."

* Old Growth Finds the New World [NYT]
"THE house that Robin Howe and her husband, Andy Grossman, share in Bridgehampton, N.Y., is only a year old, but their living room floor dates back a century. Made of wide-plank teak, the floorboards have "a lived-in feel that is attractive and old and gentle on the feet," said Ms. Howe, a fashion designer."

* Where the Winners Live [Open House]
"Jim Moran
The nine-term congressman’s house is nothing special—a three-bedroom, 1950s contemporary with an assessed value of only $400,000. But it sits on a couple of very valuable acres off Chain Bridge Road with good views of the Potomac River."

* Six Ways to Make the Most of Your Small Space [O At Home]
" When organizing expert Julie Morgenstern remodeled the kitchen of her small New York apartment, she had to maximize space."

* Where Are the Jobs? [Alexandria Gazette]
"In the past decade, Northern Virginia has experienced a job boom � hundreds of thousands of new jobs in technology, homeland security and defense contracting, plus the lobbyists and lawyers who serve them."

* Technology Key to HOT Lanes [Gainsville Times]
"While negotiations are ongoing about the design and funding of the project, regional commuters may soon see major changes coming to the Capital Beltway and I-395 corridor."

* Crystal City's Quirky Design Gets a Facelift [DC Examiner]
"The Crystal City section of Arlington County - with its drab architecture and drab work force of government bureaucrats shuffling through a network of underground tunnels - is generally regarded by urban designers the same way a fashion maven might regard a leisure suit: hopelessly outdated."

* Rising Condo Sales Drive D.C. Conversions [WHG]
"What a difference a year makes. Twelve or 14 months ago, the housing market was so hot that rental apartments were being converted to condominiums at near breakneck speeds. Today, though, things aren't moving quite so fast. Some condominium projects have even been transformed to rentals, and some conversion plans have been scrapped."

* Five Remodeling Projects Under $10,000 [U.S. News & World Report]
"So you've decided not to trade up after all. Even more, you don't want to dump a lot of money into fixing up your house if its value–and your equity–are likely to be flat or even falling in the next few years."

N.Va February Existing Home Sales Up 6.87%

Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR) and Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors (GCAAR), just released the local housing numbers for Northern Virginia and its outer burbs along with DC and Montgomery county. The housing market in DC region actually slightly up in February.

Homes sold for Northern Virginia was up by 6.87%. Northern Virginia market jurisdiction includes Arlington, Falls Church, Fairfax City, Fairfax, City of Alexandria, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

However, home sales for the outer burbs (Prince William, Loudoun, Fauquier, Madison, Orange, and Rappahannock counties) had a reverse trend than the inner burbs. Home sales for the outer burbs is at -5.73%.

The District of Columbia homes sales shows the same trend as Northern Virginia. The number of homes sold also up by 15.20% from 487 in '06 to 561 homes.   

BY THE NUMBERS: HOUSING TRENDS

Northern Virginia

The number of home sales for February '07 up from 1,368 in '06 to 1,462 homes. The number of homes on the market also up from 6,588 to 6,775 homes.

Trends
Average sales price >> $504,943  vs. $514,116 (-1.78%)
Median sales price >> $449,000 vs. $469,950 (-4.46%)
Days on market (DOM) >> 108 vs. 63 days
Ave. sales price % of ave. list price >> 93.67% vs. 96.57%

Outer No.VA Burbs 

The number of homes sold in Feb '07 down by 5.73% from 2,497 to 2,354 homes. The number of homes sold Y-T-D decline by 4.2% from 4,789 to 4,588 homes.

Trends
Average sales price >> $477,879 vs. $483,872 (-1.24%)
Days on market (DOM) >> 117 vs. 66
Average sales price >> $489,527 vs. $491,330 (-0.37%)

District of Columbia

The number of homes sold up by 15.20% from 487 to 561 homes.

Trends
Average sales price >> $490,276 vs. $502,712 (-2.47%)
Median sales price >> $388,990 vs. $400,000 (-2.75)
Average DOM    >> 81 vs. 54
Ave. sale price as percentage of ave. list price >> 93.92% vs. 95.37%

It looks like that sellers finally get it! That they won't get 2005 prices any more for their homes. And after making some price adjustments, buyers show up. Look at the numbers above. Interestingly, even though DC have a lot (I meant a lot!) of condos for sale, the February numbers not bad. The number of condos sold actually up 44% from 192 to 277 condos. The YTD numbers for also up by 32.2% from 398 to 526 units. Average prices however, down from high $426,576 in '05 to $406, 501 in '06 to $385,262 in '07.

Will prices go down a little bit more? Maybe, maybe not...

Sources: NVAR, GCAAR, MRIS

Business Week: The Real Threat Isn't Housing!

Business Week op-ed says, "that housing market isn't the real problem" but, it's the weak productivity growth.

Via Business Week.

The quickest way to get run over is to look the wrong way when you cross the street. Right now everyone is worrying--or obsessing--about a potential housing bust. And why not? You can hear the screams issuing from California to Florida as subprime borrowers and lenders take it on the chin.

But the biggest danger is not the housing decline, however painful it might be. Instead, an 18-wheeler that threatens to flatten the economy and the financial markets is barreling at us from another direction altogether: weak productivity growth. [emphasis mine]

This is refreshing, considering there has been all kinds of negative reports coming out affecting the housing market, here, here, here and here. To understand the boom and busts of the economy, you can read the full story, here.

What's happening in the nation, doesn't necessarily affecting the local market. DC housing market still relatively healthy than some other part of the nation. I'll talk more about it in a follow-up post on February home sales report. At least, the numbers don't lie.

Real Estate News Roundup

Note: Today's roundup news is chock full of market data.

* Commercial Real Estate Bust? [Calculated Risk]
"First, here are two very different stories ..."

* Credit Suisse Issues Somber Forecast [BBOL]
"The Homebuilding Equity Research team at Credit Suisse is out today (March 12) with a pair of sobering reports regarding home builders and the credit market. Among conclusions drawn by the team: a rebound in sales in 2007 is less likely; pricing of new and existing homes will continue to fall; and the fallout from lax standards for mortgage qualification will be more widespread than has been generally reported."

* Numbers Don't Lie, But They Do Confuse [Washington Post]
"With all the conflicting reports on housing prices and the direction of the market, you might ask: What's really going on out there?"

* In Dividing Properties, Multiple Possibilities [Washington Post]
"Q: My wife and I are getting divorced. We have agreed that two rental properties in our joint name will be transferred solely into my name. I know that I can file appropriate forms at the office of the Recorder of Deeds to have the titles changed into my name, but my question is about the mortgages on the two properties."

* Internet Housing Statistics and Housing Bubble [Zillow]
"We are often asked how a slowdown in the housing market would impact our business. Surely there would be less interest in homes posted for sale online but does that logic also apply to interest in Zestimates?"

* America's Next Hot Neighborhoods [Business Week]
""Up-and-coming," "gentrifying," "on the rise"—terms like these can be realtors' rhetoric or a red flag for homebuyers. But less-pricey city neighborhoods where home values have shot up in the past few years are worth scouring for deals, especially now that prices have dipped in many areas (see BusinessWeek.com, 2/19/07, "Out of the Basement for Housing")."

* Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker [Seeking Alpha]
"Here's our summary of articles and data points on the housing market. It's part of Seeking Alpha's coverage of the real estate market and homebuilder stocks."

* Your Home Isn't the Nest Egg You May Think It Is [Real Estate Journal]
"Planning your retirement? Don't bet the house on it.Your home means a lot of things to you, most of them good. Your home gives comfort and protection to you and your family, and it could well embody all your material hopes and dreams."

* New Home Market Slow Growth [Remodeling Online]
"Homeowners spent approximately $168.7 billion on home improvements and repairs in 2006, according to the latest Remodeling Activity Indicator (RAI)."

* We Like Lists: District Snubbed in Walkability Ranking [DCist]
"Last week Prevention magazine put out its list of the Best Walking Cities of 2007. We were a little bit surprised by the results."