This shouldn't come as a surprise to everyone (unless you've been living in a cave this past few months) due to subprime fallout, foreclosures, tightening up of lending standards, that for the most part the local numbers show a little bit of improvement but, by not much.
Year-to-date homes sales (January to September) for Northern Virginia down by 8.81% in comparison to YTD homes sold for the same period in 2006. YTD total number of homes sold 14,655 homes. In 2006, the number of homes sold for the same period from January to September was 16,070 homes.
However, the average price of a home sold increased from $512,152 in '06 to $529,278. With number of homes down, and prices up. It clearly shows, that housing market made it up with higher prices. Within the jurisdiction that stretches from Alexandria, Arlington, Falls Church, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties - the outer burb counties [Loudoun and PW] are the ones got hit the hardest.
Could that be 1) That people are fed up with the traffic going down I-95, or 2) Home builders built new homes at the 'speed of lightning' that suppress the resale market. New home builders are more aggressive when it comes to 'unloading' their inventories. That's one of the reasons, there are soooo.. many homes on the market in Prince William county. Not only the number of foreclosed homes on the rise here but also, builders will try 'harder' to close the deals than homeowners. Many of the big builders are in dire financial situation, a situation that forces them to raise cash quick to stay afloat. A situation that many of the homeowners can't compete with.
THE HOUSING NUMBERS
| Area | YTD Ave. Sold Price | YTD Ave. Median Price | Ave. Sold Price | Days on Market | Sold as % of List Price |
| Alexandria | No change | +1.38% | $483,467 | 85 | 95.43% |
| Arlington | +14.35% | 5.9% | $563,846 | 69 | 93.7% |
| Falls Church | -16.28% | -14.30% | $665,250 | 46 | 91.46% |
| Fairfax | No change | -5% | $526,732 | 89 | 92.74% |
| Loudoun | -4% | +1.4% | $536,883 | 111 | 92.01% |
| Prince William | -10.8% | -9.1% | $370,506 | 127 | 90.27% |
| Washington DC | +8.9% | -2.59% | $543,608 | 69 | 93.97% |
<< Washington DC is the only area in the nation's capital that have never seen a negative trend on average price for single family homes. It has been going up for 5 straight years since 2003. The other area looks like the rest of the nation. Though, the total number of homes sold in the same period, for the District declined by 34.61% from 627 homes to 410 homes.
When we look at year-to-year analysis, this is how things get interesting. The year-to-date number of homes sold for a period that ended in September 2007, still lag behind the volumes for 2004 and 2005 respectively. Just by looking at the number of homes sold, in actuality, Washington DC housing market still haven't recovered yet from the peak in 2003. The market lost almost 30% of the total volumes produced in 2005 and 2004. And this is not counting the number of new constructions on the pipeline.
| 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | |
| Year-to-date No. of Homes Sold | 14,655 (-8.81%) | 16,070 (-30.94%) | 23,270 (-5.3%) | 24,597 |
| No. of Active Listings: | ||||
| Single homes & Townhouses | 7,891 | 7,998 | 4779 | 2,817 |
| Condos | 10,721 | 11,147 | 1,914 | 723 |
| Ave. Sales Price | $529,278 | $540,441 | $533,957 | $440,150 |
BRIEF REPORT ON CONDOMINIUMS
This is a brief report for Washington resale market. The other day, Washington Journal had a piece on the state of new construction condos that was declined by 50%.
Prices for Alexandria City condo market still flat. The average sold price in '07 only up by 1% from $320,515 to $324,440. Arlington condo prices inched up from $400,172 to $411,861. These days, Arlington condos linger on the market longer 71 days up from 40+ days in the hot days of August. DC condos show the same trend lines that average condo prices only up a bit from $406,501 to $408,436. Days on the market improved a bit, but by not much.
The average sold price of condos for Fairfax declined by 4% from $310,434 to $297,233. The net price declined by the same percentage, 4%. The net price represents what is net to the sellers after subsidy.
The bright side of condo sales happened to be in the City of Falls Church. The average sold price increased by 36% for the same period from $311,000 to $422,333. Increased by a whopping 36%?! And even the net price increased by 37%. The net to the sellers up from $304,005 to $416,667. I know there are condos in the $200's to $300's range for Falls Church City. But to have average sold increased in the thirty percent range, that is not common. Could it be that a number of the new construction condos started closing? Hmm, I wonder about that...
Let's put it this way. The 'mood' in housing market might not look the best right now. We have to look at the reality. Housing prices can't continue to go up like what we'd seen the past years because wages haven't kept up with rising in housing prices. Therefore, the market would adjust by itself, before it gets back up.. again sometime in 2008-2009 time frame.
I heard today at NVAR Convention, Governor Kaine (D-VA) was saying that the state don't expect that housing market will pick up again until 2009. That means, until such time still going to be a buyer's market.
Washington DC is one of the places where you still can find good real estate deals...still.
Data & information sources: MRIS, NVAR
