A measure of market activity shows that when prices decline housing sales sizzles. The observation is based on current market (raw numbers) indicators from MRIS. You'll see below that market shows signs of improvement for Washington DC and Northern Virginia. In other words - sales 'picked up.' [Release of April 'official' housing sales from NVAR and GCAAR won't be available until second week in May].
UNDER CONTRACTS (April 2008)
Let's compare month-over-month sales under contract - in NAR jargon 'pending home sales.' In bracket it shows last year's data.
Washington DC (+21%)
369 homes (conventional) (303)
17 (foreclosure)
7 (short-sales)
Alexandria City (+15%)
156 homes (141)
6 (foreclosure)
3 (short-sales)
Arlington (+14%)
162 homes (149)
8 (foreclosure)
2 (short-sales)
Fairfax (+14.2%)
1095 homes (1135)
145 (foreclosure)
57 (short-sales)
Loudoun (+13.5%)
464 homes (518)
83 (foreclosure)
41 (short-sales)
Prince William (+23%)
613 homes (686)
181 (foreclosure)
52 (short-sales)
Based on the data above, you kind of see where the areas with the hardest hit. The analysis of - how sales is better in closer-in neighborhoods (inside the beltway) than in outer burbs (outside the beltway) because of proximity to DC - prove that is the case. Especially now with gas prices on target to reach $4 a gallon? Yeah, commuting can hit pocketbook deep.
For example, Prince William county. Almost 20% of homes under contract is foreclosure. I don't really count short-sales until it closes, because the percentage of short-sales that got sold actually really low. If we take short-sales out (52homes), the turnaround is still 15.7% in April - that is a hell of a come back for Prince William county! Ditto for Loudoun and Fairfax. These hoods show some coming back signs as well.
HOUSING INVENTORIES
Washington DC 8.3 mos.
Alexandria City 5.8 mos.
Arlington 4.9 mos.
Fairfax 8.1 mos.
Loudoun 9 mos.
Prince William 11.1 mos.
[note: 5-6 months is a 'balanced' market. Under 5 months is a sellers market and over 6 months is buyers market.]
You see market is moving fast. Supply of foreclosure homes (bank-owned/REO) might not be around too much longer. Before you know it, they're gone. So you got to hurry up.
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Check here for the most recent REO listings: Washington DC, Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Falls Church and Fairfax City.
data: MRIS
