U r b a n T r e k k e r

Foreclosure Auction in Action..

at the Bergen County Sheriff's office in NJ..

DC Hoods High in Foreclosures and Short Sale

There are 77 properties tagged foreclosure on the market in DC on MRIS. For sale prices is allover the place under half-a-million. The price range of these properties go from the highest listed price at $499,900 and lowest at $80,000. With average price falls within the $200k level.

On the other hand, even though the number of short sale properties lower than foreclosures, on average short sale have higher average sale price. The high and low goes from $186,500 to $699,000 with average falls somewhere in the $337k range. The highest price tag for short sale is a property located in Dupont Circle.

Looks like many of the distressed properties on the market, have an average price range below FHA limits..

Here is the list of neighborhoods that have the highest number of foreclosures and short sale listing on the market.

Neighborhood	Foreclosure	Short-Sale	Min.	Max.
Brookland	7	1	$93,900	$399,900
Deanwood	11		$103,750	$285,573
Old City #1	10	1	$80,000	$299,000
Petworth	7	1	$204,900	$415,000
Woodridge	5		$199,900	$399,900
Trinidad	7		$128,500	$225,650
Hill Crest	4		$94,900	$499,900
Coumbia Hgts	2	2	$299,000	$423,500

 

More details here.. (good for 30d).. or here (xls.)

What's been sold y-t-d

If we look at foreclosure data of what's been sold y-t-d here, you'd see that the highest price sold was a property which originally listed for $899,900. It was then sold for a whopping 60% off its original price! The property was a single home over at 14th St. NW.

On the other side of the price spectrum, the lowest price sold was $114,000 which was 30% off its original price. From the median side (where 50/50 properties sold priced over or below) the average is $299,000 which again off 10% of its original price.

So you see even on foreclosure side, it's trending down..

click on image for larger view

It is interesting to see the foreclosure and short sale trends. Somehow, it seems that the higher the price range, the lower number of properties foreclosed.  Though, it doesn't mean that owners won't take the short sale route. On y-t-d base, some of the hoods that have 'active' listings on the market were also 'heavy' on foreclosures, with the exception of Columbia Heights and Eckington.

data: MRIS

Signs of Bottoming Market

image: Slate

S&P/Case-Shiller August home price indices is in. Here's how prices in the 20 cities performed in the past year, via MarketWatch.

Phoenix, down 30.7%; Las Vegas, down 30.6%; Miami, down 28.1%; San Francisco, down 27.3%; Los Angeles, down 26.7%; San Diego, down 25.8%; Tampa, down 18.1%, Detroit, down 17.2%; Washington, down 15.4%; Minneapolis, down 13.8%; Chicago, down 9.8%; Seattle, down 8.8%; Atlanta, down 8.5%; Portland, down 7.6%; New York, down 6.9%; Cleveland, down 6.6%; Denver, down 5.1%; Boston, down 4.7%; Charlotte, down 2.8%; Dallas, down 2.7%.

OK. There are many buyers who are still waiting on-the-fence thinking that they'll wait for prices to come down.. a little bit more. The truth is: No one has the crystal ball to see what's going to happen to the market this month let alone next month.

Hey, do we need psychics to tell us what's going on...

The thing is with most housing data out there, it's almost always 'rear-view' mirror. It shows past performance , trendlines and doesn't say much about what's currently going on in the market. We use comps (..short for comparables), or in the pro lingo CMA (current market analysis) - to show what properties have been sold, under contracts and active - in real time. We use comps when a buyer is getting ready to make an offer for a specific property. Or, in the case of sellers, when they're getting ready to put the house on the market.

My observation been in some pockets of neighborhoods where prices have gone down 20-40% from the peak (2005), you'd see buyers snapping properties left and right. This is the true especially in places where you see multiple contracts is back on the table. Multiple contracts is the 'disease' which eventually caused the housing market to get upside down. At the time many buyers ended up paying premium than what the house is worth. Conditions which eventually leads to housing bust.

So using a combination of comps and multiple contracts trends in a hood (this requires some intel work), those are pretty darn good market indicators to use to see if prices for a hood has reached bottom and ready - to bounce back.

TAKE TWO. The sign of a bottoming market from an economist point of view, via Reuters.

"But these data are for August, before the real storm hit in terms of financing troubles and people's recognition of their seriously damaged balance sheets due to the stock market falling apart. This reading came only on the brink of great difficulties, both in terms of obtaining financing and willingness to buy a home in the first place. We need to see what happened to home prices in September and October, mainly October. But such as it is, at least a few markets are showing smaller month-to-month declines than they did last year. And that's what a bottoming of prices will eventually look like."
(emphasis added)

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I am working on September homes sales for DC, so check back later...

Big Drop Seen in Home Sales Above $900k

Reader nobody special gets it.

Well, I compared the sales by price range figures from from Aug 08 to Sep 08.

In one month, the mean dropped 65K, and the median dropped 41K.

I'd say roughly 40% of the month-to-month decrease comes from the continuing overall trend towards lower priced homes.

But the greater contribution to the month-to-month decrease comes from the tremendous drop in home sales greater than 900K -- from 130 in Aug to 59 in Sep.

It's the skyrocketing cost of nonconforming mortgages...

Here is August and September home sales data for Northern Virginia.

As you can see, the nonconforming 'jumbo loans' from one big lender have been in the neighborhood of 9 to 10 percent lately.

Tied in together, jumbo rates made a dent in total number of home sales last month for the $900k and up market.

First EcoTuesday Event in DC

.. is tomorrow, Tuesday, October 28.

Everyone is welcome, via email.

WASHINGTON DC – October 22, 2008 – EcoTuesday, a unique, structured monthly networking event for sustainable business leaders, will have its first event in Washington D.C. on Tuesday, October 28^th, 2008. EcoTuesday's structure includes an interactive dialogue and features a visionary speaker from the sustainable business world. Additionally, everyone in the room has the opportunity to introduce themselves - which means that everyone else has the opportunity to learn more about what they're interested in. EcoTuesday also launched its first event in Silicon Valley in September.
--

The first EcoTuesday in Washington D.C. will be held from 6:00 pm to 8:00 pm at Tabaq Lounge @ Café Tabaq at 1336 U Street, NW, Washington DC, 20009. This month’s speaker is John Friedman, Vice Chair, Board of Directors at Sustainable Business Network of Washington DC (www.sbnow.org).

-emphasis added

More details below the fold...

CROSSPOSTED at Talking Green..

New Home Sales Shares Similar Trends

.. with existing home sales.

When builders cut prices aggressively, it pushed up the total home sales in September. The U.S. new home sales up by 2.7 percent while the median price declined 9.1 percent from same period last year to $218,400.

In comparison, No. Va resale median home price declines 20.85  percent to  $348,250 and ave. price breaks 2004 level while DC up 3.97 percent to $389,900. Over here, usually new homes are priced higher than existing or resale.

So, that means Washington DC home prices (existing and new home) still above U.S. average.   

Follow the trends:

• U.S. Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise as Prices Drop [Bloomberg]

• Existing Home Sales Rise on Improved Affordability [MarketWatch]

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UPDATE: September New Home Sales Lowest September Since1981 [Calculated Risk]

Local Banks Still in Good Shape Financially

The good news coming out of financial crisis is this. Local banks (or community banks) in Fairfax, Loudoun and Fauquier counties - like Middleburg bank, Fauquier bank, Chain Bridge bank, Cardinal bank - are still very well capitalized.

According to Fairfax Times, local banks were never involved in subprime mortgages and not investing in the complex mortgage-backed securities that have brought down financial titans like Lehman Bros. In other words, the locals have a cleaner balance sheets than the big investment houses.

“We are still very well capitalized,” said Gary Shook, president of Middleburg Bank. The bank reported Oct. 20 a $1.6 million net income in the third quarter, ending Sept. 30.

What brought the big investment houses, i.e. the Merrill of the world, Lehman Bros., back to earth was a combination of subprime, mortgage-backed securities and change of lending standards.

Since the money supply is a bit tight at big banks. Now that we know local banks still have money in the bag, you're looking for a loan? Yes, they do offer mortgage, by the way. Ask the locals for a loan. Psssst.. maybe they can offer better programs for you than the biggies..

Just remember...

Having money to loan is one thing. Underwriting (or lending) standards is another thing. The lending standards may have tightened up since then.

CROSSPOSTED at In Tysons Space

..

Disclosure: No, I don't own stocks of any of Va. banks.

Technorati Tags: middleburg bank,fauquier bank,chain bridge bank,fairfax,fauquier,mclean,loudoun,real estate,investments,business,current affairs

Intelligent Kitchen Design

From intelligent kitchen design series, via Dwell. Architect, homeowner Jeffrey Beers shares his vison on intel kitchen design.

Click on the link.. to view it..

Real Estate Weekly News Roundup

Beanie Baby Tycoon Buys Nation's Highest Home
Ty Warner earned a giant fortune from small toys. Now the Beanie Baby billionaire aims to top all other homes in the country–literally.

Bargain Hunters Trickle Back to US Housing Market
If you believe the media hype, there are millions of homes for sale in America and not a buyer in sight. But one person's dead market is another's buying opportunity.

Who Said Recession?
Oooo-weee children, hold on to your britches because real estate gossip Max Abelson at the New York Observer is on a roll this week.

Q&A: Is It a Worth the Extra Cost to Buy Windows Filled with Argon Gas?
It is generally not a good investment to replace windows just for energy-efficiency purposes.

The Quickest Way to Begin Greening Your House
Quick - What’s the easiest way to reduce your energy use and costs in your home? Better Insulation, perhaps? Solar panels on the roof? Microturbine on the lawn?

America's Next Foreclosure Capitals
The number of homeowners dealing with foreclosure is mounting. Nationwide, almost 766,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice from July through September, according to Realty Trac.

Zelman: "Current Trends are Pretty Frightening."
The message was clear during housing analyst Ivy Zelman's presentation this afternoon at the NAHB's Fall Construction Forecast Conference: Fasten your seatbelts.

Eco-Friendly Tips We All Need to Know
Before you launch into a weekend of cleaning out your cabinets or the garage, stop for a refresher course on disposing of all that leftover paint, used motor oil, expired medications, dead batteries and other items considered “hazardous household waste”.

A Look at Chemical Free Pool
Although fall is settling in, it's never to early to plan for next summer and spring-time projects.

Bair: 3,500 Mortgages Modified at IndyMac Under FDIC Program
In testimony Thursday on Capitol Hill, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairman Sheila Bair provided the first public update on the FDIC’s loan modification program put into place at IndyMac Federal Bank since it was introduced roughly two months ago.

How to Handle a Home-Equity Hang-up with Ongoing Project
I am one of those homeowners whose home-equity lines of credit was reduced due to the "significant decline" in prices in my area. This is our problem: We learned about the HELOC reduction after we started to build.

OTHER NEWS FROM THE AROUND THE REGION

• The Tysons Lunch Bunch
• Surrounded by Ruins, Mortgage Market Remains Intact
• F.C. Scores Bonanza: BJ's Warehouse Relocating Here
• Parc Rosslyn-= Affordable Housing Never Look so Good!
• Metro Bringing Bigger Buses to Rosslyn-Dulles Route
• Purple Line Supported, Not Funded
• Wilson Bridge Project Honored
• Tysons Project Could Add to Traffic Congestion
• "Intersection of Influence and Parking"
• Local Banks Holding Strong During Financial Crisis

Existing No. Va Homes Sales Up 54% in September while Price in the Tank..

Northern Virginia's (that incl. Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church) homes sales in September might have been one of the best ever months year-to-date. However, for the first time since the peak, September home sales price breaks 2004 level.

click on image for larger view

While sales price down 23% from a year ago, the total number of units sold up 53.92% within the same period from 1,072 units to 1.650 units last month. On a year-to-date basis, this year's total number of units sold still have a deficit of 15.91% from 14,655 to 13,513 homes sold.

Price really took a hair cut. YTD sales price is down 13.79% from $541,146 to $465,891. That means: There were more homes under $500k sold this year!

The average sales price declined 23% from $529,278 to $407,748 while median sales price also follow the same declining trend from $440,000 to $348,250 or -20.85%.

Current market conditions

Status as of 9/30/08 report
Active listings	9112
Under contracts	1777
Sold	1650
DOM	93 days

data: MRIS

TRENDS

Foreclosure sales

According to MRIS data, there were 215  foreclosure (tagged) sales or 13% of September Northern Virginia's home sales. With additional 6 home sales under 'short-sale.' YTD there were 1,378 foreclosure homes sold or about 10% of the total homes sold.

Financing

See the trend below. FHA and VA made up more than 50% of all sales transactions last month which was quite a jump from a year ago.

Financing	2007	2008
Conventional	935	890
FHA	12	452
VA	15	94
Cash	53	125
Assumption	33	72

This financing trends does tell a couple of things:

1. half of the transactions are homes priced under the FHA and VA loan limits,
2. higher number of lower priced homes sold drags down the average sales price, and
3. more first-time buyers jumped in the game.

To sum it up, price corrections does show that it creates buying opportunities.

data: NVAR and MRIS

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UPDATE-1: Over in some hoods, prices already break $100K support level.. [read post]

UPDATE-2: Housing prices shows similar trend nationwide..