U r b a n T r e k k e r

Smackdown: Fairfax vs. Montgomery county

In politics, this is what you call opposition research. By looking outside, Montgomery county assigned 2 staffs to do a comparative data report. (Because Fairfax "snatched" a couple of big businesses relocating to the area - I think Hilton is one of them- instead of Montgomery county). The report released by Office of Legislative Oversight Montgomery counties gives Fairfax county the bragging rights for the number of jobs, income, and crime rate. Though, Montgomery county is ahead in terms of percentage of land preserved for open space/ parkland. In terms of population, Fairfax has more population density per square miles, 2,570 persons/sq.mi vs. 1,912 persons/sq.mi for Montgomery.

Comparative data, via Office of Legislative Oversight Montgomery county.

                                                   Montgomery County                 Fairfax County

Land area                                     497 miles                                    395 miles

% of land preserve as open space    38%                                            15%

Population (2008)                         950,980 people                          1,015,302 people

Budget approved FY10                  $4.47 billion                                $4.34 billion

Expenditure per resident               $4,706                                       $4,316

Sources of revenue:

Property tax                                32%                                             57%

Income tax                                  27%                                            none

Other tax                                     7%                                               11%

All non tax revenue                      34%                                              32%

Tax rate:

Residential (per $100 assessed)  from $0.975 to $2.835                from $1.066 to $1.113

Commercial  - ditto                    from $0.975 to $2.835                from $1.176 to $1.443

No. of jobs  (2007)                     654,728                                       855,842

Unemployment                            5.2%                                            4.7%

Housing:

Total housing units                    365,083 units                                393,365 units

Median housing price ('08)         $489,400                                       $523,300

Foreclosure rate                        2.4%                                              3.3%   

Sure, jobs attracted more people to move to Fairfax. Fairfax has 200,000 more jobs than Montgomery! However, there's other things to consider when it comes to choosing where you want to live, work and play. Fairfax spend less per resident as oppose to Montgomery. On the other hand, taxes higher in Montgomery county than Fairfax. What about schools? Oh well.. you can continue digging in the data...       

Read full report, here.

Washington DC Region Migration Pattern

Over at New Geography, there's a post asking the question on whether there's a return to the city or a new divide in the region? The data use to parse the migration pattern suggests that though there's a pattern that people moved back to the city, and yet at the same time data pointed that the burbs still going strong. However, data also points to the direction that not all burbs are created equal. 

According to Census Bureau population estimates, between 1987 and 2007 the population of the Washington DC metropolitan area grew from 3.92 million to 5.31 million people, an increase of about 35.5 percent. The population growth rates over this period varied considerably within the metropolitan area. The Center City experienced a 7.6 percent population decline between 1987 and 2007 while all of the other subregions in the metropolitan area grew. The fastest growing subregion was the Outer Suburbs, where the population grew by 109.6 percent over the 20-year period, followed by the Far Flung Suburbs (80.0%), Inner Suburbs (27.4%) and Inner Core (23.7%).

 

[via New Geography]

Yes, not all burbs are created equal. I think people migrate for a couple of reasons, for example lower housing prices. The far flung burbs or exurbs may have gained more people because the housing prices were much, much lower then than say, outer burbs like Prince William county. The data, the writer use was as current as 2007, before foreclosure buying frenzy. So, I'd be interested to see how the tide have changed since then.

Full story here..

Foreclosures to Drop in 2010

Oh well, this has been happening (for a while) over here, in Washington DC region. I'd be so surprised if these days, you put a contract to buy foreclosure, with "no" competition from other buyers! Via MarketWatch Real Estate Weekly. 

A University of Michigan researcher is predicting that foreclosures will begin to fall next year, dropping from 2.75 million in 2009 to about 1.75 million in 2010 and 2011.

They will decline to less than an annual 1.5 million by 2012, said Dennis Capozza, professor of finance and real estate at Michigan's Ross School of Business. The drop in foreclosures will be due to better national and local economic conditions, including a strengthening economy, slower house-price depreciation and tighter underwriting of mortgages, he said.

Home Remodeling Payback 2009-2010

Remodeling magazine just released its 22nd annual Remodeling Cost vs. Value report for 2009-2010. Conventional thinking would have thought that remodeling kitchen and bathroom still offers the best value, right? Not anymore. It's the other part outside and inside the house that offers better return for your money. The greatest return of this year's cost vs. value reportedly come from curb appeal, outside your house projects.

Seven out of top 10 high-yielding value, are exterior projects, that cost under $15,000 and yet offer the best return. The driver: recession. It's the economy. Many homeowners have decided to scale back their projects and be frugal. Another reason for the popularity is the tax credits for energy-efficiency upgrades, like roof, windows, etc. (more on energy-efficiency tax credits). Most buyers wouldn't mind paying a bit more for new and energy-efficient windows.

The best bang-for-your-buck: entry door replacement (steel). This is where cheaper is better. The job cost $1,172 on average, however, the resale value of $1,470 recoup 128.9% of your investment. If you replace your entry door with fiberglass door, instead of steel, it doesn't offer you the same return. Not only the product cost more than double at an ave. of $3,490, it only recoup half of (steel) for a mere 65.2% return on your money. Not bad. But not the best investment for the money.

Here are the top 10 mid-range remodeling projects. (in bracket shows cost recoup):

1. Entry door replacement steel (128.9%)
2. Attic bedroom (83.1%)
3. Deck addition wood (80.6%)
4. Siding replacement vinyl (79.9%)
5. Minor kitchen remodel (78.3%)
6. Window replacement wood (77.3%)
7. Window replacement vinyl (76.6%)
8. Basement remodel (75.4%)
9. Major kitchen remodel (72.1%)
10. Bathroom remodel (71%)

For our area, Washington DC region, the four value added mid-range projects with great potential, are attic bedroom, backup power generation, basement remodel and roofing replacement. The more expensive projects, even though cost more, the recoup cost is far less than the money spent. In other words, it's not worth it.

For full coverage, go here and here.

Fannie Mae Higher Lending Standards in the Pipeline

Stricter lending standards are coming online next month. Fannie Mae will raise minimum credit score from 580 to 620 for a 20% downpayment. Also for borrowers with a 20% downpayment, the debt to income ratio, can't be more than 45%.

Forget buyers' tax credit for a moment, this kind of ratio will make it tougher for some people to qualify.

How to Reduce Your Home Heating Costs

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Green Tune-up: Location of Thermostat is Key

Image by pdxjmorris via Flickr

So, where you put your programmable thermostat, apparently is key to cut down your utility bills. Thermostat is the low hanging fruit in energy efficiency. However, where you put thermostat, is important in helping you meeting the goals of keeping your energy bills down, via New York Times.

“If you have the right thermostat in place but the temperature sensor is in the wrong place, that can have a huge impact on energy performance,” said Jeffrey Perlman, the president of Bright Power, an energy consulting group.

Thermostat is so efficient that it gives you the fastest payback to savings energy and the environment, in comparison to other gadgets, when in comes to green tune-up your home. It's 'right' on the money. For a small investment of around $115, you can get money back for the return on investment (ROI) in the neighborhood of 0.6 year or 7.2 months, at an annual savings of approximately $180 in energy costs. According to GreenandSave, your payback or ROI would be 1.5 times (156.5%) of cost.

It's like real estate. Location, location, location. Where you put it, gives you the most bang! Via GreenandSave:

The height on the wall (optimal between chest and eye level) and the location in a room near exterior doors or windows can impact the readings. As well, proximity to supply and return ducts can impact the reading and cause inefficient cycling. (emphasis mine)

Consult your HVAC contractor and ask to give you a couple zone locations around the house, so you can get the most bang for your buck.

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For the purpose of full disclosure: I am a Realtor Outreach for GreenandSave, a company that has 20 year legacy in the 'Green' energy saving market. The National Association of Realtors (NAR), uses the GreenandSave data for their green education curriculum. Click here and enter promo "Realtor2," and GreenandSave will donate $10 of proceed to a local realtor association. 

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Where Do You Want to See Yourself Fit in the Green Revolution?

Note: This is the story I posted for  on Active Rain, a social networking site for real estate professionals. Since it's members only, I can't even link the post. So, here is the post in its entirety.

--

About a month ago, I attended a forum hosted by the Switzerland Embassy on "Green Building Policy and Design: Best Practices from Switzerland," in DC. This forum was geared towards promoting Made in Switzerland green building certification, which takes a different approach than the widely recognized LEED certification over here. Their approach is a bit simpler than LEED. LEED has a more complicated scoring tools before coming up to the platinum, gold, and standard certification systems.

The point that I want to make is this: why is it residential Realtors, being in the forefront of green revolution, not jumping the bandwagon in droves? I don't get it. Whatever you call it, be it green, sustainable, eco-friendly, trends - is real. It's here for us to seize the opportunities. Yeah, foreclosure and short-sale, may be the 'subject of interest' for the moment. The trend won't last forever. Foreclosures and short-sale supplies will disappear before you know it. On the other hand, green home, is here to stay.

There are many shades of green. This is a topic, which deserves a post on its own. For now, let's just talk about the trend in the new homes market from NAHB (National Association of Home Builders). Okay, NAHB may be in new homes, they're different, you say. However, we should see their efforts on pushing green as the 'best indicator' of what's coming in the pipeline for residential market.

Here's the latest survey from NAHB and MetLife Mature Market Institute done in September of 2009:

• 37% of consumers want an 'environment-friendly' home
• 94% of builders says that their buyers want more energy-efficient new homes
• 55% said buyers specifically want Energy Star-rated homes
• 25% of builders said buyers want homes with more recycled materials and less materials overall.

What's more, Kevin Morrow, NAHB Sr. Program Manager for Green Building Standard, said the bright spot of this recession is "builders building green homes are doing okay.." Hmm, wonder why not too many builders jumped the bandwagon sooner?

For us, Realtor magazine has an online exclusive talking about consumers interest on being green and the eco-friendly speak, published sometime in 2007. So, where are we today? Sadly, we're not there yet. We're kinda late in the game. Seriously.

The thing is, resale homes, is a huge and "untapped" market! For all purposes, i.e. remodeling, retrofitting, and more, which sometime in the future the same homes after 'green remodeling' will be bought and sold with green home label. Consider this:Energy Star plans to enter the resale market. Now, if we look at the alternative energy companies (selling solar, solar water heater, geothermal systems, etc.), they have targeted the residential market - long before any other clean, green industries enter the market! - because they see the 'upside' potential.

So, where do you see want to see yourself fit in this green revolution?

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For the purpose of Full Disclosure: I am currently in transition from being an agent to be a Realtor Outreach for GreenandSave.com, because I want to make a difference. GreenandSave, has a 20 year legacy in the 'Green' Energy saving market. NAR uses G&S data for their education curriculum. GreenandSave provides information on green home trends, tools, and marketing program for Realtors. Visit GreenandSave for more details. Enter promo code "REALTOR2, " and we will donate $10 to your local real estate association.

Washington DC Ranks 18 in America's Most Toxic Cities

Image via Wikipedia

Forbes ranks 40 major cities in the US that are most toxic. Rankings is based on poor air quality, lack of clean water, and high rate of Superfund sites. Because Forbes lumped Washington DC metro area with West Virginia, we have 33 Superfund sites, 98 facilities releasing toxic chemicals, and air quality ranks number 7 (based on 2007 numbers). We're not as bad as Atlanta, which is bottom of the list. But, still, not good. Among the 40 cities, Washington DC- Arlington-Alexandria, DC-MD-VA-WVA metro area is number 18 on the list. 

A 'Superfund' site, is.. (via EPA)

A Superfund site is an uncontrolled or abandoned place where hazardous waste is located, possibly affecting local ecosystems or people. 

Think about this: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News or VA-NC metro area is "cleaner" than DC. You kinda wonder why. Well, they only have "6" Superfund sites vs us 33!

You would think that crowded places such as New York City would be the most polluted place. Instead NYC is better than DC. Ranks 9 on the list. 

Here's why.

High population density--the contrast to Atlanta's sprawl--can be a good thing in terms of toxicity. Limiting traffic has helped urban centers like New York City, which are often associated with grit and grime. A highly efficient subway system keeps New York outside the worst 20 cities in terms of toxicity.

[via Forbes]

So having a good public transportation would help.

See how your cities stack here..

Core Logic Forecast Bottom in March 2010

Using pricing forecast, according to First American Core Logic, they see housing reach bottom in March of 2010. They're projecting that declines will continue throughout 2009 before hitting bottom in March 2010.

Furthermore, with the expiration of  home buyer's tax credit and the growing number of homes entering foreclosure process, the termination of credit and increase in foreclosure inventories will continue downward pressure on housing prices. Observation: without distressed properties (short-sale and foreclosure), the upward trend for regular sale prices projected to hit 1.7% vs. 3.46% for all types.

The forecast for our metro Washington DC area:

In Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by -5.28 percent in August 2009 compared to August 2008. This compares to July's year-over-year HPI -7.43% and June's HPI -10.35%. Excluding distressed transactions, year-over-year HPI for August is -4.84 percent, compared to July -6.15% and June -7.65%.

In August 2010, the index is projecting that 12-month appreciation for Washington-Arlington-Alexandria home prices will be 3.46 percent.

LoanPerformance August HPI for the Country's 10 Largest CBSAs:

Ranked by Current Home Price Appreciation	August 2009 12 Month HPI Change by CBSA		12 Month Forecast (August 2009 - August 2010)
CBSA	Single Family Combined	Single Family Combined Excluding Distressed	Single Family Combined	Single Family Combined Excluding Distressed
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown TX	2.03%	-1.18%	1.35%	3.39%
Dallas-Plano-Irving TX	-0.12%	-1.50%	0.21%	1.55%
Boston-Quincy MA	-3.97%	-3.28%	3.03%	4.09%
Philadelphia PA	-5.22%	-4.97%	-0.83%	0.08%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV	-5.28%	-4.84%	3.46%	1.71%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA	-8.22%	-5.66%	0.23%	-0.25%
New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ	-11.72%	-9.01%	2.29%	2.61%
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL	-12.50%	-9.81%	4.15%	3.34%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale CA	-14.02%	-8.23%	6.29%	6.59%
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall FL	-16.82%	-14.90%	6.14%	4.87%

Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance HPI, Single-Family Combined (Detached and Attached) as of August, 2009.

[via First American Core Logic]